Discusses basic issues and results when attempting to back-test the Directional Movement formula.
Data: S&P500 Emini Futures
Futures Contract Rollover: Arbitrarily set on second Friday of every Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec
Period: 28 Dec 2008 - 31 Mar 2012 (Hourly Chart)
VBA Code: Method B of Code
Excel Version: 2010
Click here for background information, formula, calculation steps and the entire VBA code.
Results Summary
Divergence does not signify that a trend is forming in the hourly charts based on my dataset. I inverted this trading rule and arrived with a strategy that is profitable before transaction costs, as expected. Given the large number of trades generated, the naive trading rule applied will most likely not be profitable after costs. The interesting fact is that this is the second or third indicator I found where the usual trading rule I read from other sources has to be inverted in order for the strategy to even show before transaction cost profitability.
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| Screen Shot 1 |
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| Chart 1: Cumulative Profit of Strategy (Before Costs) |
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